CAHU Blogs

By John Lovell

Jerry Brown made it official last week – he’s running for Governor. Actually, the big news would have been if Jerry had decided not to run. Jerry has conducted a non-campaign that kept any major challengers out of the race in the Democratic primary, and, into the bargain, forced San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom out of a primary challenge to Brown. Newsom is now running for Lieutenant Governor, an office he publicly scorned during his stint as a gubernatorial candidate.

On the Republican side, Insurance Commish Steve Poizner, despite trailing former eBay executive Meg Whitman by over 20 points, walked away with the endorsement of the California Republican Assembly, the state’s leading grass-roots Republican volunteer organization. CRA, which is the voice of Republican conservatives, was founded in the 1930’s – ironically by then California Attorney General and later Governor and US Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren. The endorsement is an important one for Poizner, because it gives him conservative bona fides in what promises to be a contentious primary campaign on the GOP side.

Start making your plans to come on up to Sacramento for DATC on May 11 and May 12. You’ll get to meet newly minted GOP Assembly Leader Martin Garrick, and hear from Sacto Bee Political Editor Dan Morain, as well as GOP political guru Jim Brulte. For more details and registration information, go to www.cahu.org and click on the Day at the Capitol banner.

By John Lovell

CR’s wife is Latina and is fluent in Spanish; CR is occasionally called out for being a “Pendejo” by said wife. “Pendejo” (pronounced pen-DAY-ho) is a pejorative Spanish-language word that loosely translates into being an idiot, only much, much worse. Suffice to say, Latinas and Latinos never aspire to be Pendejos.

That title has been assumed by Assembly Democrats in their refusal to confirm Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor. Senator Maldonado, a moderate Republican who broke with his fellow Republicans and voted for the budget last year, was appointed to the office of Lieutenant Governor by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. The office was vacated when the prior incumbent, John Garamendi, was elected to Congress.

Senator Maldonado’s appointment was confirmed by the Senate on a strong bi-partisan vote. When he reached the Assembly, however, the nomination ran into rough sledding. First, the Assembly Rules Committee racked Senator Maldonado over the coals for having the temerity to support the open primary ballot measure (CAHU supports that same measure). Eventually, that Committee sent the Maldonado nomination to the floor without recommendation.

After a multi-hour debate, the nomination fell short of confirmation on the Assembly floor with only 37 Legislators voting yes and 35 voting no.

Now the fun began. First, a serious legal question arose as to whether Maldonado could take office anyway. Under the Constitution, a gubernatorial appointment to a constitutional office is deemed approved unless one legislative house rejects the nomination. Well, is the failure to approve a “rejection”? It’s a matter of serious legal dispute with both sides making strong points. Nevertheless, the Assembly could have avoided any legal issues by simply phrasing the proposed resolution more artfully. Pity the Assembly Rules Committee wasted so much time criticizing the open primary ballot measure and never bothered properly wording the confirmation/rejection agenda item.

The Assembly Speaker tried to say that failure to confirm met rejection, but the Governor announced that he intended to swear in Maldonado anyway. Meanwhile, gleeful Republicans were all over Spanish language radio with ads criticizing the Democrats for standing in the way of the appointment of a Latino. Political commentators mercilessly criticized Assembly Democrats for rejecting a Republican moderate – how, they asked, could Democrats expect Republicans to buck their own party leadership to pass a budget (distinctly more important than who holds the office of Lieutenant Governor), when they gave moderate Republicans who had in fact joined them to pass budgets in the past the back of their legislative hand???

Recognizing the silliness of swearing Maldonado in as Lieutenant Governor under a cloud, the Governor withdrew the nomination – then resubmitted it – giving the process another 90 days to run and the Assembly Democrats yet another opportunity to screw things up.

Pendejos??? There are a lot of Assembly Democrats walking around the Capitol today with the letter “P” firmly emblazoned on their foreheads.

By John Lovell
Lobbyist

It’s official: the June ballot measure to enact a non-partisan primary in California is Proposition 14.

Under Proposition 14, all primary elections (except for Presidential primary contests) will be open to all voters, regardless of party. The top two candidates in the primary will face off against each other in the general election.

This is an extremely important reform – strongly supported by CAHU – because it will bring the Legislature more toward the center. Here’s why: Right now, all of the primaries are closed primaries and virtually all districts are safe. What this means is that the only elections that matter is the primary election in the majority party (for that district) once the incumbent has termed out. In closed primaries, the people who vote are the activists – the true believers. This means that a Democratic primary is dominated by voters who are considerably to the left of most ordinary people who call themselves Democrats. Republican primaries are dominated by voters who are to the ideological right of ordinary Republicans. Therefore, the way a candidate wins in a closed primary is to run to the extremes in their respective party.

These are the only elections in America where a candidate wins by running to the extremes.

With an open primary, party won’t matter. Everyone gets to vote and the top two candidates face off against each other in the Fall. That means that in a safe Democratic district, Republican voters will be the decisive factor in determining what type of Democrat goes to Sacramento. In a safe Republican district, Democratic voters will have a similar influence.

And what this means is that the entire Legislature will move to the center. CAHU does very well when we can speak with centrist Legislators – be they Democrat or Republican.

As to be expected, both political parties hate Proposition 14. Initially, they pledged to spend upwards of $ 20 million to defeat Proposition 14. That may be changing: Both parties will have to be spending considerable funds in either electing or protecting their respective candidates. In other words, the good guys have a chance to win one!

CAHU-PAC gave $ 100,000 to help pass Proposition 14: We have made our voices heard and we are on the verge of dramatically changing California.

By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist

Political events of seismic proportions have occurred in the last ten days. First, there was the move of Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race over to the race for the GOP nomination for the right to challenge Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer for her US Senate Seat. Then the Massachusetts Earthquake hit where the bluest of blue states elected a Republican to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat.

The events – although not planned – are linked. Tom Campbell is a much better candidate for US Senate than he was for Governor. In fact, the first polls taken after his switch show him leading fellow Republicans Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore for his party’s nod. In fact, his candidacy raises the possibility that Senator Boxer could be defeated come November. No political observer with whom CR has spoken thinks that either Fiorina or DeVore had much of a chance of upending Boxer – but Campbell is different: the press likes him and he brings neither corporate baggage (Fiorina led HP at a time when they were allegedly evading laws against trade with Iran), nor is he considered too extreme (DeVore is known as one of the most conservative members of the Assembly). Ironically, Campbell is actually to the left of Boxer on some public safety issues – but it remains to be seen whether those issues will be part of a November Senate race.

On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman moves to a commanding lead over Insurance Commish Steve Poizner with Campbell out of the race. Further, either Whitman or Poizner runs within 10 points of likely Demo nod Jerry Brown. That number is significant since Jerry held a 20 point margin over both eMeg and Smokestack Steve in the last polling.

Massachusetts suggests that it is too early – way too early – for Boxer to sign another DC apartment lease or for Brown to start planning his cabinet.

By John Lovell
CAHU Lobbyist

CR took the legislative recess time off, but is now back for the upcoming session – a session that promises to be leavened by a healthy dose of politics.

Look for discussions about the ins and outs of the open primary ballot measure – a critically important ballot measure: CAHU-PAC has made a $ 100,000 contribution towards its passage. And don’t forget, there’s a Governor’s race coming up this year. Right now, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman seems to have a comfortable lead in the race for the GOP nomination, but a highly respected Republican politico told CR last week that Insurance Commish Steve Poizner “would smoke eMeg once the campaign gets going.” We’ll reserve judgment on that one. The other statewide races are starting to take shape as new names come into the fray. The Attorney General race just got turned upside down with the news that respected LA District Attorney Steve Cooley will be entering the race for the GOP nomination. He’ll square off against State Senator Tom Harman. Harman’s not as well known as Cooley, but he does have the advantage of a head start and the counsel of Wayne Johnson, one of the best campaign consultants in California (CR believes he IS the best).

So, we’ll have a lot to talk about this year; for the latest in political news and gossip, keep it right here, at Capitol Rap.

By John Lovell

The words were barely out of the Governor’s mouth announcing his intent to appoint Senator Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor when Senate President Pro Tempore announced that he had “grave doubts” over confirming Abel Maldonado as Lieutenant Governor.

Steinberg expressed a concern over the $ 2 million it would cost to have a special election to fill Senator Maldonado’s Senate seat.

Whatever the costs of a special election, the real agenda is political: In the wake of the political tsunami that hit Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia, Capitol Democrats fear that 2010 could also be a bad Democratic year in California – particularly in a low turn-out special election.

And Democrats are not alone. There are three State Senators – two Republican and one Democrat – who themselves would like to be Lieutenant Governor. None of them are interested in giving Senator Maldonado the leg-up of incumbency.

None of this means, however, that Maldonado will not be confirmed. If Maldonado is rejected by the Legislature, he will remain in the Senate, but will most assuredly be less likely to break ranks with his Republican colleagues (as he has in the past) to vote for a budget.

The State Constitution requires that Maldonado must be confirmed by both houses of the Legislature. But it also provides that if the Legislature takes no action within 90 days, then Senator Maldonado will be deemed confirmed.

CR will be watching the political tealeaves to give you a distant early warning as to how all of this plays out.